Tải bản đầy đủ - 0trang
PART VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD AND THE FUTURE SPOT RATE
PART VI. CURRENCYFORECASTING
I. FORECASTING MODELS
A. Created to forecast exchange
rates in addition to parity
B. Two types of forecast:
derived from market indicators.
A. The current forward rate contains
implicit information about exchange
for one year.
B. Interest rate differentials may be
used to predict exchange rates
beyond one year.
include fundamental and technical
A. Fundamental relies on key
macroeconomic variables and
policies which most like affect
B. Technical relies on use of
1. Historical volume and price data
2. Charting and trend analysis